CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-22T14:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-22T14:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17376/-1
CME Note: Visible in the west in SOHO LASCO/C2, STEREO A COR2. May be associated with an eruption from AR 12848 (N20E08), visible in SDO AIA 304/193/171 beginning 2021-07-22T12:10Z, followed by EUV wave indicating a more southwestward ejection. Arrival indicated by weak but sudden increase in field amplitude, accompanied by speed increase and field component rotation. Preceded by brief pileup and temperature increase. Indicates a far flank arrival with flux rope only. This is a weak CME arrival, perhaps combined with a weak HSS arrival, with no candidate CH other than the patchy equatorial bit around W50.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-07-25T18:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-26T13:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

% Compiled module: EAM_V2.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 364.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v2
u_r =      415.344
Acceleration:      0.123666
Duration in seconds:        344550.47
Duration in days:        3.9878526
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   0.12 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  458.0 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 26/07/2021 Time: 13:42 UT

Lead Time: 30.83 hour(s)
Difference: -18.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-07-24T12:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy